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Ballesteros-Pérez, P, Sanz-Ablanedo, E, Soetanto, R, González-Cruz, M C, Larsen, G D and Cerezo-Narváez, A (2020) Duration and Cost Variability of Construction Activities: An Empirical Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Davila Delgado, J M, Oyedele, L, Bilal, M, Ajayi, A, Akanbi, L and Akinade, O (2020) Big Data Analytics System for Costing Power Transmission Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Deng, H, Hong, H, Luo, D, Deng, Y and Su, C (2020) Automatic Indoor Construction Process Monitoring for Tiles Based on BIM and Computer Vision. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
El-adaway, I H, Ali, G G, Abotaleb, I S and Barber, H M (2020) Studying the Relationship between Stock Prices of Publicly Traded US Construction Companies and Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Step toward Construction–Economy Nexus. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords:
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001742
- Abstract:
Many scholars from multiple professional and academic disciplines have investigated the various links between the construction industry and economic output. Nevertheless, there remains a noticeable dearth of studies that address the potential impact of the players within the construction industry on various economic indicators. The goal of this research is to study how the economic performance of the US—measured in GDP—is impacted by the performance of the construction industry and its key players and how the performance of the construction industry could help in forecasting future US GDP. This goal is achieved by studying the relationship between GDP, total construction spending (TTLCONS), the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) index (GSPC), and the stocks of major publicly traded construction companies. The authors applied an interdependent research methodology that included (1) data collection, (2) statistical testing on the data using correlation analysis and Granger causality testing, and (3) vector autoregression (VAR) for both fitting and prediction purposes. A positive correlation was found between GDP, the S&P500, TTLCONS, and the stocks of major publicly traded construction-related companies. Also, the Granger causality test showed that some major construction company stocks are useful in forecasting GDP. The developed VAR model was used to forecast GDP for 2 years with acceptable accuracy. In this connection, the model was validated by successfully forecasting in a retrospective manner the effect of the 2008 financial crisis. This shows that the stock prices of select publicly traded construction and equipment companies can be used to predict GDP. In fact, a similar model could have been used to predict the 2008 economic collapse and develop ex ante mitigation strategies. The findings of this study could open opportunities for abandoning the notion of studying the construction industry solely using the health of residential construction. As such, this research should help in moving toward the development of a construction–economy nexus.
Elmousalami, H H (2020) Artificial Intelligence and Parametric Construction Cost Estimate Modeling: State-of-the-Art Review. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Gondia, A, Siam, A, El-Dakhakhni, W and Nassar, A H (2020) Machine Learning Algorithms for Construction Projects Delay Risk Prediction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Halabya, A and El-Rayes, K (2020) Optimizing the Planning of Pedestrian Facilities Upgrade Projects to Maximize Accessibility for People with Disabilities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
He, C, McCabe, B, Jia, G and Sun, J (2020) Effects of Safety Climate and Safety Behavior on Safety Outcomes between Supervisors and Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Li, Y, Cao, L, Han, Y and Wei, J (2020) Development of a Conceptual Benchmarking Framework for Healthcare Facilities Management: Case Study of Shanghai Municipal Hospitals. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Maqsoom, A, Wazir, S J, Choudhry, R M, Thaheem, M J and Zahoor, H (2020) Influence of Perceived Fairness on Contractors’ Potential to Dispute: Moderating Effect of Engineering Ethics. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Newaz, M T, Davis, P, Jefferies, M and Pillay, M (2020) Examining the Psychological Contract as Mediator between the Safety Behavior of Supervisors and Workers on Construction Sites. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Pereira, E, Ali, M, Wu, L and Abourizk, S (2020) Distributed Simulation–Based Analytics Approach for Enhancing Safety Management Systems in Industrial Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Signor, R, Love, P E D, Belarmino, A T N and Alfred Olatunji, O (2020) Detection of Collusive Tenders in Infrastructure Projects: Learning from Operation Car Wash. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Tawalare, A, Laishram, B and Thottathil, F (2020) Relational Partnership in Public Construction Organizations: Front-Line Employee Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).
Yuan, H and Yang, Y (2020) BIM Adoption under Government Subsidy: Technology Diffusion Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(01).